Read the
Economy.
Own the Trade.
CapMoney's fundamental analysis engine processes over 120 macroeconomic data points across G10 economies weekly — translating raw data into directional conviction before price even moves.
The Four Pillars of
Macro Analysis
Every trade idea at CapMoney is validated against four fundamental lenses — no directional conviction is formed without all four converging.
Monetary Policy
Central bank decisions, rate trajectories, QT cycles, and forward guidance language all feed into currency strength scoring.
Interest Rates · QE/QT · Forward GuidanceEconomic Data
GDP revisions, employment reports, PMI surveys, retail sales — all measured against consensus forecasts to gauge surprise direction.
GDP · NFP · PMI · CPI · Retail SalesGeopolitical Climate
Trade flows, sanctions, energy supply disruptions, and sovereign risk events are monitored to identify safe-haven demand and risk-off rotations.
Trade Wars · Energy · Risk FlowsRelative Value
Inter-market relationships — bond yield differentials, equity risk premium, commodity correlations — reveal misalignments that precede large trending moves.
Yield Spreads · COT Data · Correlations18 Indicators.
One Directional Verdict.
Each indicator is weighted by historical reliability, release recency, and current market regime to compute a composite macro score for every major currency.
From Raw Data to
Trade-Ready Conviction
A rigorous five-stage process converts incoming macroeconomic data into a directional trade thesis — before technical entry is even considered.
Real-Time Data Collection
CapMoney ingests over 120 macroeconomic data points per week across G10 economies — from tier-1 releases (NFP, CPI, GDP) to secondary indicators (jobless claims, housing starts, consumer confidence).
Surprise Score Calculation
Each data release is scored not just on its absolute value, but on its deviation from market consensus — because markets move on the gap between expectation and reality, not the number itself.
Macro Regime Classification
Data surprises are interpreted within a current macro regime — whether a central bank is in tightening, pausing, or easing phase dramatically alters how markets interpret any given data point.
Multi-Factor Confluence Scoring
Individual data signals are aggregated into a composite currency score across the four analysis pillars — monetary policy, growth, inflation, and capital flows — with dynamic weighting by regime.
Directional Conviction & Trade Brief
When composite score divergence between two currencies exceeds threshold, a directional trade brief is issued — identifying the macro driver, expected duration, and key risk events that could invalidate the thesis.
Currency Fundamental Scanner
Weekly composite scoring across all major pairs — updated every Monday after global data releases.
| Currency | Rate Policy | Inflation | Growth (GDP) | Employment | Composite Score | CapMoney View |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🇺🇸USD US Dollar | Hawkish Hold | Elevated | Solid +2.8% | Tight | 74 / 100 | Bullish |
| 🇬🇧GBP British Pound | Easing Bias | Cooling | Stagnant +0.3% | Loosening | 45 / 100 | Neutral |
| 🇪🇺EUR Euro | Cutting | Near Target | Weak +0.4% | Stable | 32 / 100 | Bearish |
| 🇯🇵JPY Japanese Yen | Hawkish Pivot | Rising +2.8% | Modest +1.1% | Full Employment | 62 / 100 | Bullish |
| 🇦🇺AUD Aus Dollar | Cutting | Falling | Slowing +1.5% | Softening | 27 / 100 | Bearish |
| 🇨🇦CAD Can Dollar | Easing | On Target | Sluggish +1.2% | Mixed | 42 / 100 | Neutral |
| 🇨🇭CHF Swiss Franc | Neutral Cut | Below 1% | Steady +1.8% | Strong | 55 / 100 | Neutral |
| 🇳🇿NZD NZ Dollar | Aggressive Cut | Falling Fast | Contraction −0.2% | Rising Unemp. | 18 / 100 | Strongly Bearish |
Active Macro
Signal Briefings
CapMoney's research team publishes macro signal briefings each week — connecting economic releases to directional market opportunities.
USD Strength Thesis — Fed Divergence Play
With the Fed holding at 5.25–5.50% while the ECB and BOE signal cuts, rate differentials strongly favour USD across the board. EUR/USD and GBP/USD remain primary short targets for this macro cycle.
JPY Recovery — BOJ Hawkish Pivot Building
First BOJ rate hike in 17 years signals a structural shift. As wage inflation rises above 3% and BOJ graduates from YCC, the yen carry trade unwind could accelerate. Watch USD/JPY for reversal setups.
Gold — Safe Haven + Real Rate Tailwinds
Falling real yields, central bank gold buying at record pace, and geopolitical uncertainty continue to underpin XAU/USD. The fundamental case for gold remains intact regardless of USD short-term strength.
AUD — China Slowdown + RBA Easing Cycle
Weak Chinese PMI data, softening domestic inflation, and the RBA beginning its easing cycle create a structural headwind for AUD. AUD/USD and AUD/JPY shorts remain aligned with fundamentals.
CAD — Oil Floor & Cautious BOC Easing
OPEC+ supply discipline has put a floor under WTI around $74. CAD benefits from stable oil prices, but the Bank of Canada's easing pace limits CAD upside. Best expressed via EUR/CAD shorts.
CHF — SNB Cuts Slow, Franc Stays Defensive
The Swiss National Bank has been one of the most cautious cutters. With European geopolitical uncertainty persisting, CHF retains its safe-haven premium. EUR/CHF offers limited upside.
Trade What the
Economy Is Telling You.
Access CapMoney's full macro intelligence suite — weekly briefings, live currency scoring, and event-driven trade alerts — from day one.